“小布平替”大行上市，折叠车赛道藏着五个趋势

Core Viewpoint - The rise of cycling culture in China has significantly boosted the market for folding bicycles, particularly for the Dahon brand, which is often referred to as a "Brompton alternative" due to its affordability compared to the high-priced Brompton models [2][3]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The cycling boom has propelled companies like Dahon onto a fast track, with Dahon's revenue projected to double from 254 million yuan in 2022 to 451 million yuan in 2024, driven by the expanding mid-to-high-end folding bicycle market [4]. - The global folding bicycle market is expected to recover to 3.7 million units in 2024, surpassing the peak of 3.1 million units in 2021, after a decline in 2022 and 2023 [4][5]. Group 2: Target Market and Consumer Behavior - Dahon focuses on the niche market of folding bicycles, which accounted for approximately 5.3% of the global bicycle market in 2024, with China representing 22% of the global folding bicycle retail volume [5]. - The primary target demographic for Dahon includes commuting office workers, with plans to expand into leisure cycling and other segments to capture a broader market [5][6]. Group 3: Product Positioning and Pricing Strategy - Dahon has shifted its product offerings from budget to mid-range bicycles, with mid-range models (priced between 2,500 and 5,000 yuan) increasing their revenue contribution from 50.6% in 2022 to 69.5% in 2024 [8]. - The average selling price of Dahon's folding bicycles rose from 1,593 yuan in 2022 to 1,927 yuan in 2024, reflecting a consumer preference for higher-end and innovative products [8]. Group 4: Online Sales Growth - Dahon has significantly increased its online sales, with direct online revenue growing from 14.14 million yuan in 2022 to approximately 100 million yuan in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate of over 166% [10]. - The proportion of online direct sales in total revenue surged from 2% in 2022 to 35.4% in 2024, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards e-commerce platforms [10]. Group 5: Inventory Risks - The cycling industry faces inventory challenges, with several brands experiencing excess stock due to a surge in bicycle shops during the cycling boom, leading to potential financial impacts if inventory is not managed effectively [11].