今晚，美联储将重启降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during its upcoming meeting, influenced by recent employment growth slowdown and a shift in focus towards employment issues rather than inflation concerns [1][2][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to finalize the meeting's participant list just before the meeting is unprecedented, indicating potential internal conflicts among officials [2][4]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is approximately 96%, while a 50 basis point cut is at 4% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [6]. - Recent disappointing economic data has heightened concerns about a slowdown in the labor market, which could impact consumer spending and economic growth [8]. Group 2: Internal Conflicts and Predictions - The internal division within the Federal Reserve may be more pronounced than in previous meetings, with some officials advocating for a larger rate cut while others prefer to maintain current rates [11][12]. - The addition of Milan to the Federal Reserve is expected to strengthen the faction supporting more aggressive rate cuts, while the hawkish side remains significant [12]. Group 3: Dot Plot and Future Rate Cuts - The dot plot will be closely watched for indications of future rate cuts, particularly regarding the number of cuts expected in 2025 and the potential for increased divergence in 2026 predictions [13][14]. - Analysts predict that the dot plot will show two rate cuts for the year, with the possibility of an adjustment based on internal disagreements [17][20]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Sector Performance - Historical data suggests that the S&P 500 typically shows positive returns in the 12 to 24 months following the Federal Reserve's first or resumed rate cuts [22][23]. - In periods of strong economic performance with limited rate cuts, cyclical sectors like financials and industrials tend to outperform, while defensive sectors gain traction during more aggressive rate cuts [26][30]. - Gold prices historically rise when the Federal Reserve cuts rates amid high inflation, with predictions suggesting gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [26].