连续5日收红，债市要走出新一轮上涨？静候变量打破僵局

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the domestic bond market in China, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic data and potential policy changes on bond yields and market trends [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Economic Data and Market Reaction - August macroeconomic data showed weaker-than-expected performance, leading to increased expectations for "stabilizing growth" policies, which contributed to a five-day rise in 10-year government bond futures [2][3]. - The 10-year government bond futures main contract closed at 108.15 yuan, with a rise of 0.13%, while the yield on the 10-year active bond fell to 1.765%, down approximately 1.5 basis points [3]. Future Policy Expectations - Analysts suggest that the focus on stabilizing growth may lead to new incremental policies, with upcoming meetings such as the central bank's monetary policy committee and government press conferences being key events to watch [3][4]. - The financial outlook for the fourth quarter remains cautious, with potential downward pressure on the economy due to high base effects and policy uncertainties [4]. Central Bank's Role - There is ongoing debate about whether the central bank will resume bond purchases, which could significantly impact the bond market by pushing interest rates back into a downward trend [5][6]. - The central bank has not conducted bond buying operations for eight consecutive months, and the likelihood of resuming such operations is increasing due to market volatility and the need to stabilize bond prices [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The relationship between the stock and bond markets is crucial, with the stock market's performance affecting bond yields. If the stock market continues to rise, it may exert downward pressure on bond yields [7][8]. - Historical trends suggest that a bull market in stocks can positively influence consumption and credit data, potentially leading to higher bond yields if the current weak economic indicators improve [8].