机构：人民币突破7的可能性极大

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle after a year, leading to a weakening of the US dollar, with the dollar index dropping below 97, marking a new low since July 7 [1][5] - The dollar index has decreased by 11% this year, representing its worst performance since 1973, having peaked above 110 at the beginning of the year [2][5] - Analysts predict that the Chinese yuan will continue to appreciate, with the onshore yuan reaching a high of 7.1047 against the dollar on September 17, and the offshore yuan briefly surpassing 7.1 [1][6] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the Federal Reserve will accelerate its rate cuts, expecting four consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, December, and January, potentially bringing the target federal funds rate to approximately 3.375% by January [3] - The expectation of a faster rate cut is based on recent soft inflation and employment data, which provide the Fed with the policy space to move towards a neutral interest rate level [3][5] - Prudential's chief global economist anticipates a gradual reduction in rates to a range of 3.0% to 3.5%, allowing the Fed to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and labor supply [5] Group 3 - The recent appreciation of the yuan is attributed to the approaching Fed rate cuts and the resulting decline of the dollar, which has created upward pressure on non-USD currencies, including the yuan [6][8] - The strong performance of the domestic stock market and increased foreign capital inflow have also contributed to the rising demand for the yuan, enhancing market sentiment [6][9] - Analysts expect the yuan to maintain a strong position in the short term, with a focus on the dollar's performance and the central bank's management of the yuan's midpoint rate [9]