美联储降息25个基点！美元指数跳水，黄金升破3700美元

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, driven by lower-than-expected job growth in recent months [1][11]. Market Impact - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets saw a short-term rally, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors, while the Chinese assets strengthened, with the Golden Dragon Index rising over 2% [1]. - The U.S. dollar index dropped to its lowest level since February 2022, and the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate broke above 7.09, reaching a high of 7.0845, the first time since November of the previous year [1][3]. Stock Market Reactions - In a preventive rate cut environment, U.S. stocks typically exhibit three characteristics: limited downward adjustments due to the "Fed put," strong performance from interest rate-sensitive indices or sectors, and a sustained trading period of about three months following the first rate cut [6]. - Growth-oriented and small-cap stocks are expected to benefit more from the rate cut, with foreign capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks significantly increasing [15] [9]. Gold Market Insights - Historically, gold has shown an 83% success rate in the ten trading days following a rate cut since 1990, although caution is advised regarding profit-taking after the rate cut [7]. - Several institutions predict that international gold prices may challenge $3,800 or higher within the year or by mid-next year [15]. Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds has fallen below 4%, approaching last week's low, with short-term bond yields decreasing and prices rising [5][6]. - The Fed's rate cut is expected to alleviate the pressure on the China-U.S. interest rate differential, potentially attracting foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds, particularly government and policy bank bonds [9]. Currency and Economic Outlook - The weakening U.S. dollar and improved global liquidity are anticipated to drive capital from the U.S. to emerging markets, especially Asian equities and sovereign debt [9]. - The RMB is expected to maintain stability, with limited risks of rapid appreciation or significant depreciation, as the dollar index faces systemic downward pressure [9].