特朗普“安插”的米兰投出唯一反对票

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, lowering the interest rate range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, with indications of potentially two more cuts by the end of the year [2][3] Economic Outlook - The Fed has revised its economic growth forecast for this year upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%, with further adjustments for 2026 and 2027 [7] - Inflation pressures are expected to rise starting next year, with core PCE inflation projected at 3.1% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026 [7][8] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% in 2025, slightly adjusted down to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, with a long-term rate of 4.2% [7][8] Labor Market Insights - Recent data shows a slowdown in labor demand, with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below the expected 75,000 [9] - Powell expressed concerns about the rising unemployment rate among minority groups, indicating a need for vigilance in the labor market [9] Interest Rate Projections - The median interest rate forecast for 2025 is now 3.6%, down 30 basis points from June, suggesting two more rate cuts this year [11] - The updated dot plot indicates significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding future rate cuts, with some members advocating for more aggressive cuts [12][14] Policy Challenges - The Fed faces a complex environment with conflicting pressures from a softening labor market and persistent inflation [16][18] - Market expectations suggest that traders anticipate two to three additional rate cuts next year, contrasting with the Fed's more conservative outlook of only one [17][18]