美联储重启宽松周期，历史高位的美股将如何演绎？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut marks the end of a prolonged period of monetary policy stagnation, raising questions about market reactions to the restart of the easing cycle [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Rate Cuts - Investors are advised to increase stock allocations and reduce cash holdings, with Société Générale raising its recommended stock allocation from 44% to 50% and cash from 10% to 5% [3]. - Historical data indicates that U.S. stock markets typically show strong returns immediately following the first rate cut and continue to perform well over the next 12 to 24 months [3]. - The current high levels of the stock market may complicate the prediction of the impact of this easing cycle [3]. Group 2: Sector Rotation and Growth Opportunities - The Fed's rate cuts usually lead to a rotation of funds from defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare to higher-risk growth sectors such as technology and real estate [6]. - In the early stages of a rate cut cycle, defensive sectors tend to perform better, but as the policy effects become evident, growth and cyclical sectors regain dominance [6]. - FactSet data shows that communication services and non-essential consumer goods sectors have performed well this year, with increases of 27.4% and 17.6% respectively [6]. Group 3: Small-Cap Stocks as Beneficiaries - Small-cap stocks are gaining popularity among investors looking for beneficiaries of the Fed's rate cuts, with the Russell 2000 index rising nearly 10.5% this quarter, outperforming major large-cap indices [8]. - Despite recent rebounds, small-cap stocks still have relatively low valuations compared to large-cap stocks, indicating potential for further gains [8]. - The future of small-cap stocks is contingent on the Fed's signals regarding future rate cuts, with more cuts potentially supporting their upward momentum [9].