美联储：降息25个基点，年内预计再降两次（附发布会速览）

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and the first reduction in nine months since December 2024 [4][21]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% [4][21]. - The decision reflects a shift in focus from inflation control to supporting employment as the labor market shows signs of cooling [18][21]. Economic Indicators - Recent indicators suggest a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, with a stable low unemployment rate but a deceleration in job growth [6][21]. - Inflation remains slightly elevated, prompting the committee to closely monitor risks associated with its dual mandate [6][21]. Future Rate Projections - FOMC participants predict an additional 50 basis points cut in 2025, followed by 25 basis points cuts in 2026 and 2027 [21]. - The median GDP growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9%, respectively, showing an upward revision from previous estimates [21]. Voting Dynamics - The decision saw dissent from member Milan, who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while other members expressed varying views on the extent of future cuts [8][21]. - Among the 19 officials, opinions varied on the number of cuts, with some suggesting a total reduction of up to 150 basis points within the year [21]. Powell's Remarks - Powell characterized the rate cut as a risk management decision, indicating no immediate need for rapid adjustments to rates, suggesting a cautious approach rather than a sustained easing cycle [18][21]. - He emphasized that the Fed's actions are data-driven and not influenced by political pressures, despite external criticisms [19][21].