绿色液体燃料规模化落地难在哪？

Core Viewpoint - Green liquid fuels are considered "ready-to-use" low-carbon energy sources that can easily integrate into the existing energy system, making them crucial for decarbonization in hard-to-electrify sectors like aviation and shipping [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Development - The National Energy Administration has approved nine projects, including a 30,000 tons/year cellulose fuel ethanol project, to advance green liquid fuel technology and industrialization trials, with a completion deadline set for December 2026 [3]. - Green liquid fuels, such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), sustainable diesel, and green methanol, represent a new industry that is still developing and lacks mature technology [3][10]. - The establishment of a market system for green liquid fuels is essential for large-scale promotion, as the current costs are approximately double that of traditional fossil fuels [5][6]. Group 2: Challenges and Limitations - The production cost of green liquid fuels is significantly higher than traditional fuels, with green methanol costing around 2,900 yuan per ton, which does not provide a competitive edge in the market [6][5]. - The lack of a coordinated industrial chain, involving raw material supply, production, transportation, and end-use, hampers the healthy development of the green liquid fuel industry [6][5]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The green liquid fuel industry is expected to experience rapid growth in the next 3-5 years, driven by increasing demand and supportive policies from the EU and domestic initiatives [11]. - As technology matures and production scales up, the cost of green liquid fuels is anticipated to decrease, enhancing their competitiveness against traditional fossil fuels [11][10]. - Companies are encouraged to invest in R&D, strengthen collaborations across the industry, and actively participate in international standard-setting to improve their market position [11][10].