徐远：中国不会重蹈日本经济的覆辙！| 两说

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of the Chinese economy and its divergence from the historical path of Japan's economic bubble, emphasizing that China has learned from Japan's past mistakes in monetary and fiscal policies [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - China has maintained a relatively tight monetary policy, avoiding the excessive easing that characterized Japan's approach in the late 1980s, which led to asset bubbles [3]. - The Chinese yuan has been effectively controlled, preventing a significant appreciation similar to the Japanese yen post-1985 [3]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The rapid increase in real estate prices in China has been followed by a decline since 2021, contrasting with Japan's unchecked real estate bubble in the early 1990s [3]. - Early intervention measures were taken in China to curb rising property prices, demonstrating a proactive approach to prevent a housing market collapse [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - Both experts express caution regarding the effectiveness of aggressive fiscal policies, noting that Japan's government debt reached 250%-260% of GDP from 1985 to 1995 without reviving the economy [5]. - Fiscal measures can provide short-term boosts to GDP but may lack long-term effectiveness in fostering market vitality and innovation [5]. Group 4: Economic Development Logic - The focus of China's economic strategy has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, aiming to cultivate sustainable market-driven development [7]. - The lessons learned from Japan's economic history suggest that China is unlikely to repeat the same mistakes, with a belief in the potential for future economic improvement [7].