券商中国·2025-09-18 08:28Market Overview - A-shares experienced a sudden pullback on September 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index both dropping over 1% during intraday trading, while the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan [1][2] - The Hong Kong market also saw a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling over 400 points [3] Sector Performance - The tourism sector showed resilience, with stocks like Yunnan Tourism and Qujiang Cultural Tourism hitting the daily limit [2] - Conversely, gold stocks faced substantial declines, with companies like Xiaocheng Technology dropping over 8% [2] - Financial technology stocks also experienced a downturn, contributing to the overall market pressure [5] External Influences - Analysts suggest that the collective decline in international commodity markets may indicate a market reaction to the end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to profit-taking [1][3] - Despite the drop in the dollar index, the depreciation of the Chinese yuan was limited, with the yuan's share in global payments increasing to 2.93% in August from 2.88% [3] Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the recent sell-off may lead to a redistribution of shares, resulting in a continued volatile market leading up to the National Day holiday, but with potential for positive movement in October [6] - The easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to benefit Chinese assets, with potential for interest rate cuts in China, which could create favorable conditions for domestic monetary easing [6] - Historical trends indicate that the initiation of a Federal Reserve rate-cut cycle often leads to significant excess returns in domestic equity markets, particularly in growth sectors like the ChiNext Index [6][7] Investment Opportunities - The launch of an ETF tracking the CSI A500 index by DWS in Europe is seen as a positive development for foreign investment in Chinese assets [5] - The current policy environment and liquidity conditions are viewed as conducive to the emergence of a major bull market, with historical precedents supporting this outlook [7]