美联储降息25个基点，影响几何？券商解读来了

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] Summary by Sections Rate Cut Expectations - Most brokerages believe the rate cut was fully priced in and expect two more cuts within the year [2][3] - Analysts suggest that if the unemployment rate remains stable, continuous rate cuts may not materialize [3] Economic Outlook - Analysts from Citic Securities view the rate cut as a risk management measure, indicating a shift in focus from inflation to employment risks [4] - The dot plot suggests a total of three rate cuts this year, with a neutral long-term rate maintained at around 3% [4] Asset Market Reactions - The dollar is expected to remain weak, while gold's outlook shows divergence among analysts [6] - Citic Securities anticipates that the rate cut will lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario for U.S. Treasuries and a positive response in U.S. equities [6] Impact on Chinese Markets - The rate cut is seen as beneficial for Chinese stocks, bonds, and the yuan, with expectations of increased domestic monetary policy space [8] - Analysts suggest that the global liquidity easing will provide additional capital for the Chinese stock market [8]