刚刚！高盛宣布：超配A股、H股！

Core Viewpoint - Foreign capital is gradually increasing its allocation to Chinese assets, reflecting a positive outlook on the Chinese market despite recent market fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Outlook - A-shares and H-shares are expected to see an 8% and 3% increase respectively over the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs [2][9]. - The recent market rally is driven by liquidity and institutional investments rather than retail investors, with significant inflows from both domestic and foreign institutions [4][5]. - The active participation of foreign investors in A-shares has reached a cyclical high, with August seeing the highest monthly inflow of funds in recent years [4][6]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - Domestic public funds have reduced their cash ratios to a five-year low, indicating a higher stock exposure [4]. - Insurance companies have increased their stock holdings by 26% this year, while private equity funds have grown from 5 trillion RMB to 5.9 trillion RMB [4]. - The Northbound trading activity has surged to historical highs, showcasing increased foreign institutional interest in A-shares [5]. Group 3: Future Potential and Valuation - The current valuation of MSCI China and CSI 300 is at 13.5x and 14.7x forward P/E ratios, which are below historical bull market averages of 15-20x [8]. - There is a significant potential for incremental capital inflow into the A-share market, as household asset allocation is heavily skewed towards real estate (55%) and cash deposits (27%), with only 11% in stocks [8][9]. - If institutional ownership in A-shares rises to the average levels of emerging and developed markets, it could lead to an influx of 14 trillion RMB or 30 trillion RMB into the market [9].