美国宣布降息，告诉我们5大信息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, signaling a shift in focus from inflation to employment, which may lead to more frequent rate cuts in the future [5][7][8]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Rate Cut - On September 17, the Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 [5]. - The decision was passed with an 11 to 1 vote, with the only dissenting vote from new board member Stephen Milan, who argued for a 50 basis point cut [5][6]. Shift in Focus - The Fed's Chairman Powell indicated a shift in focus from controlling inflation to prioritizing "full employment" due to signs of a cooling labor market [7]. - This change suggests that the frequency of rate cuts may increase, as the current employment situation in the U.S. is not ideal [7]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - According to the "dot plot," 10 out of 19 officials expect two or more rate cuts this year [7]. - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is estimated at 87.7%, while the likelihood of a total 50 basis point cut by December is 81.6% [7]. Global Implications - The Fed's rate cut may encourage other countries to follow suit, as global central banks have been relatively stagnant in their rate policies [8]. - The potential for a rapid series of cuts by the Fed could lead to currency appreciation for non-U.S. currencies, including the Chinese yuan, if trade negotiations remain stable [8]. Impact on China - The Fed's rate cut is seen as beneficial for China's stock market, currency, and real estate, with Hong Kong stocks expected to benefit more than A-shares [8]. - It is anticipated that China's monetary policy will have more room to maneuver, with a potential rate cut expected within the year [8].