【乘联分会论坛】9月狭义乘用车零售预计215.0万辆，新能源预计125.0万辆

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and outlook of the Chinese automotive market in August and September, highlighting a steady growth trend despite tightening subsidy policies and market uncertainties [2][6]. Group 1: August Market Review - In August, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.018 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a month-on-month increase of 9.5% [2]. - Retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in August totaled 1.115 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.8% and a month-on-month growth of 13.0%, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [2]. Group 2: September Market Outlook - The traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to bring stable growth, with an estimated retail market size of around 2.15 million units in September, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 6.5% and a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [3][6]. - The expected retail volume of NEVs in September is around 1.25 million units, with a penetration rate projected to reach 58.1%, setting a new historical high [3][6]. Group 3: Weekly Sales Trends - In the first week of September, daily retail sales averaged 43,500 units, down 10.3% year-on-year and down 3.8% month-on-month [4]. - By the second week, daily retail sales rebounded to 59,500 units, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2% but a month-on-month increase of 11.9% [4]. - The third week is expected to see daily retail sales reach 68,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.8% and a month-on-month increase of 14.3% [4]. - The fourth week is projected to achieve daily sales of 105,900 units, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month increase of 19.0% [4]. Group 4: Market Stability and Consumer Behavior - The initial stability in market discounts and a more regulated pricing system indicate a positive trend in the automotive consumption market, with retail sales of automotive products showing a recovery [6]. - The introduction of new models and the impact of local stimulus policies are expected to enhance market contributions, particularly in the NEV segment, which is anticipated to continue its rapid growth [6].