21社论丨中美利差进一步收窄，货币政策坚持“以我为主”

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, described by Powell as a "risk management" move rather than a shift to a sustained easing cycle [1][3] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowdown, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising from 4.2% to 4.3% [1][2] - The labor supply is decreasing due to immigration policies, which may mask the true decline in labor demand, leading to a "low hiring, low firing" environment [2] Group 2 - Inflation risks remain, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.7% over the past 12 months, and core PCE increasing by 2.9%, influenced by rising goods prices while service price inflation slows [3] - Despite the rate cut, the Fed's contradictory stance on predicting economic growth and inflation increases has led to market confusion [3] - International capital is seeking "safe havens," with China being a primary destination, as foreign investors injected nearly $45 billion into emerging market stocks and bonds in August, with about $39 billion directed towards China [4] Group 3 - The narrowing of the interest rate differential between the U.S. and China may lead to increased capital inflows into China, potentially boosting the RMB exchange rate [4] - China's monetary policy needs to be cautious in response to the narrowing interest rate differential, as further rate cuts could pressure bank margins and increase risk appetite among banks [4] - The low interest rate elasticity of consumption and investment in China suggests that rate cuts may not effectively stimulate these sectors, necessitating careful consideration of both international and domestic liquidity conditions [4]