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美联储降息影响几何?15家券商解读
财联社·2025-09-18 15:41

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points marks the beginning of a new preventive rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Over 15 brokerage firms have released reports interpreting the Fed's rate cut, with "in line with expectations" being the dominant sentiment [1]. - Most brokerages anticipate an additional 50 basis points of cuts within the year, but long-term cuts may be less than previously expected [1][4]. - The consensus among analysts is that the U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, although some warn that excessive easing could lead to stagflation risks [1][11]. Group 2: Individual Brokerage Insights - CITIC Securities: Predicts further cuts in October and December, but the path for rates next year remains unclear [3]. - China Merchants Securities: Indicates that the Fed's dot plot suggests a lower rate cut than market expectations, with potential volatility in risk assets [6]. - Guotai Junan Securities: Believes the new rate-cutting cycle will support market liquidity and stock performance, despite a slower long-term pace [8][10]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Zhejiang Merchants Securities: Describes the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, indicating a hawkish tone and uncertainty about future cuts [4][13]. - Huatai Securities: Adjusts its forecast for rate cuts from two to three times this year, citing ongoing pressures in the job market [4][12]. - CICC: Warns that excessive monetary easing could exacerbate inflation and lead to a stagflation scenario [11]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - CITIC Jian Investment: Highlights that real estate and manufacturing sectors are likely to benefit first from the rate cuts [7]. - Guangdong Development Securities: Suggests that the Fed's actions may create more room for China's monetary policy adjustments [2][6]. - Dongwu Securities: Notes that the Fed's guidance indicates an additional rate cut next year, which may support market sentiment [2].