刚刚！“黑天鹅”，突袭！

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's decision to gradually sell its holdings of domestic exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has led to significant market volatility, with the Nikkei index dropping 1.6% and impacting other Asian markets [3][4][6]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes, which was in line with market expectations [3]. - The announcement of selling domestic ETFs indicates a shift from the ultra-loose monetary policy era initiated during Abe's administration, suggesting a potential tightening of monetary policy [6]. - Analysts predict a 58% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by the end of the year, with many expecting a rate hike before January [6][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance, the Japanese yen strengthened significantly, contributing to declines in equity markets across Asia [4][6]. - The dollar-yen exchange rate fell sharply, which was a major factor in the market turmoil [4]. - The Nikkei index's drop was mirrored by declines in other indices, including a 0.4% decrease in India's Nifty 50 and widespread losses in Southeast Asian markets [3]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite some signs of weakness, the Japanese economy is on a path of moderate recovery, with stable trends in exports and production, and moderate growth in capital expenditure [6]. - There are concerns that trade policies may slow Japan's economic growth, but a rebound is expected thereafter [6]. - Historical data indicates that the reversal of carry trades involving the yen has occurred in the past, which could lead to further market pressures if similar conditions arise [8].