券商中国·2025-09-18 23:34Core Viewpoint - The US stock market experienced a significant rally, with major indices reaching all-time highs, driven by a strong performance in semiconductor stocks and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 3%, contributing to the overall rise of the three major US indices, which all set new historical closing highs [2][5]. - The Nasdaq rose by 0.94%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.48%, and the Dow Jones gained 0.27%, with the Russell 2000 index climbing 2.51% [5]. - Notable gains were seen in semiconductor stocks, with Intel soaring over 22%, marking its largest intraday increase since October 1987, following news of Nvidia's $5 billion acquisition of Intel shares [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 were 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000 and down from the previous week's 263,000 [6]. - Despite the drop in initial claims, the number of continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating challenges in the labor market [6][7]. - The average duration of unemployment rose to 24.5 weeks in August, the longest since April 2022, suggesting longer job search periods for unemployed individuals [6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will implement two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each in its remaining meetings this year (October and December) [8][9]. - The Fed's recent policy actions reflect concerns about the labor market, with Chairman Powell noting an unusual balance in the labor market due to significant declines in both supply and demand [7]. - Goldman Sachs and Nomura have both adjusted their forecasts to anticipate further rate cuts, emphasizing a gradual easing of monetary policy to balance inflation control and economic support [9].