王庆：市场有望迎来一轮结构性“慢牛”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to enter a structural "slow bull" phase, driven by policy support, technological innovation, and improved corporate governance, following a significant turning point on "9·24" last year [1][3][11]. Group 1: Market Transition - The date "9·24" is identified as a crucial turning point for the Chinese stock market, marking a shift from previous underperformance to a leading position among global markets [3][5]. - The Chinese stock market's rise this year is attributed to both internal and external factors, with internal factors being dominant [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Context - Comparisons are made to the 2008 U.S. subprime crisis and Japan's 1990s real estate bubble, highlighting that China has not faced a financial crisis despite real estate issues, although local fiscal problems have emerged [5]. - The Chinese government has implemented a comprehensive set of policies, including monetary and fiscal easing, to address local debt issues, similar to the U.S. government's actions during the 2008 crisis [5][6]. Group 3: Corporate Behavior and Market Dynamics - There is a notable shift in A-share companies towards enhancing shareholder returns, with an increase in dividends and share buybacks, leading to a positive net shareholder return rate [6][10]. - The market has seen significant technological innovations, which have contributed to a stable market environment since "9·24" [6][10]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The past year is viewed as a mean reversion period for the A-share market, with potential for continued upward movement based on historical trends [8][10]. - The likelihood of a "crazy bull" market is considered low, with expectations leaning towards a "slow bull" market driven by structural factors [10][11].