“创新药一级市场不能再冷下去了”——我们和37位投资人、创业者聊了聊

Core Insights - 60% of biotech respondents believe the innovative drug primary market has emerged from its lowest point, but conditions remain suboptimal; 33% see no significant change, indicating a continued capital winter [1][5][10] - The survey highlights that 67% of biotech respondents face challenges in financing due to high professional barriers and a lack of understanding from investors regarding innovative drug logic [3][10] - The investment environment is perceived to have improved slightly, yet investors remain cautious, with a belief that the enthusiasm in the secondary market has yet to translate to the primary market [4][26] Group 1: Financing Challenges - 67% of biotech respondents cite high professional barriers as a primary challenge in securing financing, while 52% point to stringent financing conditions such as performance guarantees [3][10] - In the first half of 2025, there were 188 financing events in the domestic innovative drug primary market, a 7.4% year-on-year decline, with total financing amounting to approximately $1.58 billion, down 24.5% from the previous year [5][10] - Many biotech founders report difficulties in securing funding, with one entrepreneur stating that it typically requires discussions with at least 100 institutions to secure investment [5][10] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The innovative drug sector has seen a resurgence in stock prices, with over 60 companies experiencing a doubling of their stock prices, driven by numerous business development (BD) transactions [5][10] - Investors are increasingly focused on the ability of drugs to enter international markets, which often indicates imminent returns [16][26] - The current investment logic has shifted towards a focus on commercialization capabilities, with investors now requiring clear evidence of potential milestones and commercial viability [12][14] Group 3: Exit Strategies - 74% of biotech respondents believe that the lack of smooth exit channels is a major factor affecting the current investment climate in the innovative drug primary market [19][20] - Many investors express concerns about the difficulty of exiting previous investments, with 8 out of 10 investors indicating that exit channels remain constrained [19][20] - The trend of BD transactions is emerging as a potential exit strategy, although it is still not widely adopted, with only a small percentage of investment agreements including BD clauses [20][22] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is a concern that the current wave of BD transactions may lead to a gap in new investments, as the focus on established projects may overshadow the need for funding new innovations [25] - Investors believe that for the primary market to recover, there needs to be a stable policy environment and visible success in the secondary market that can encourage further investment [26] - The industry is facing a potential decline in entrepreneurial activity, with a shift in investment focus from companies to specific drug pipelines, raising concerns about long-term industry vitality [26]