人民币资产吸引力提升

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts after nine months, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first cut since December 2024 and following three previous cuts totaling 100 basis points in 2024 [1][2]. Economic Context - The current economic situation in the U.S. is described as "very special," with rising inflation and a weak labor market creating a "dual risk" scenario. The labor market has shown signs of slowing, with a downward revision of 911,000 in the annual non-farm payroll data, indicating an average monthly increase of nearly 76,000 fewer jobs [2][4]. - Inflation remains a concern, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 2.7% year-on-year as of August 2025, and core PCE rising 2.9%, both exceeding the Fed's 2% target [4]. Federal Reserve's Strategy - The Fed's decision to cut rates is influenced by the need to balance inflation control and employment stability, with a shift in focus towards job preservation as consumer spending, which accounts for 68% of GDP growth, relies on employment [4][5]. - The decision was also affected by external pressures, including ongoing calls from President Trump for rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, and internal dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where one member voted against the cut, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction [5][6]. Global Financial Market Reactions - The Fed's rate cut has triggered a chain reaction in global financial markets, impacting the U.S. dollar's exchange rate and international capital flows. The dollar index has shown signs of decline, influenced by concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and the Fed's independence [6][8]. - The weakening dollar has led to a strengthening of the Chinese yuan, with a continuous surplus in bank foreign exchange settlements for four months and a balanced cross-border capital flow [8][9]. Implications for China - In response to the Fed's actions, China's monetary policy may focus more on fiscal measures and reforms rather than direct rate cuts, despite the narrowing interest rate differential providing some room for easing [11]. - Analysts suggest that while further rate cuts in China could increase pressure on bank margins and lead to greater financial market volatility, the overall economic context may allow for more balanced capital flows and investment opportunities [9][11]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adjust asset allocation strategies in light of the Fed's rate cuts, emphasizing diversification across asset classes, sectors, and regions. This includes considering lower correlation assets such as gold and infrastructure investments to enhance portfolio resilience [12]. - The anticipated decline in dollar cash rates and bond yields may increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar cash assets, prompting a shift towards high-quality bonds to optimize potential returns [12].