21社论丨内外因共振，人民币汇率具有较强支撑

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the underlying economic fundamentals of China, which are increasingly viewed favorably by international investors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The offshore RMB broke the 7.10 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November last year, reaching a high of 7.0995 [1][3]. - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut, the US dollar index fell to its lowest point since January, at 96.2199, marking a new low since February 2022 [1]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the US has contributed to the RMB's strength, but the fundamental economic conditions of each country are crucial for understanding currency movements [3]. - China's large market size and improving total factor productivity (TFP) due to technological innovations are seen as strong support for the RMB's appreciation [3]. Group 3: International Investor Sentiment - International investment banks, such as Deutsche Bank, have expressed optimism about the RMB, predicting it could break the 7 mark by 2025 and appreciate to 6.7 by 2026 [4]. - The World Bank has downgraded global economic growth forecasts, particularly for developed economies, which contrasts with the more favorable outlook for emerging markets like China [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Increased willingness of foreign trade enterprises to engage in currency exchange has led to net inflows in the foreign exchange market, improving market expectations [5]. - The RMB's exchange rate mechanism has become more transparent since the "8·11 exchange rate reform," reducing the likelihood of extreme fluctuations and suggesting that moderate adjustments against the dollar will be the norm [5].