近期光伏玻璃价格变化及未来走势浅析

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass market has experienced a significant price decline, but recent trends indicate a recovery due to increased demand and inventory reduction [1][2] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Since the second half of 2024, photovoltaic glass prices have fallen below the industry's breakeven cost, leading to increased losses for companies [1] - From August onwards, the photovoltaic glass market has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in prices compared to the lows in July [1] - As of this week, the mainstream price for 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is 12-13 RMB per square meter, and for 3.2mm, it is 20-21 RMB per square meter, reflecting increases of 28.2% and 15.5% respectively from late July [1] Group 2: Short-term Outlook - In the short term (1 month), demand for stocking ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to support market stability, with potential for slight price increases [1] Group 3: Mid-term Outlook - In the mid-term (2 months to year-end), if the traditional peak season for photovoltaic installations in Q4 is maintained, prices may stabilize despite rising production costs due to increased natural gas prices [2] - However, if demand weakens and production capacity is released, there could be significant downward pressure on prices [2] - The price trend for photovoltaic glass will largely depend on market supply and demand dynamics, with new capacity potentially increasing supply pressure [2] - The implementation of export tax rebate policies could impact overseas demand and domestic exports [2] - Currently, there is no significant resistance from end-users against price increases, but if supply increases and demand weakens, prices may revert to a downward trend [2]