日本央行清仓ETF需"100年以上"，前路艰难

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to gradually sell off its holdings of ETFs and REITs, which have reached a scale of 70 trillion yen, indicating a long-term exit strategy from its previous monetary easing policies [2][4][10]. Group 1: Background and Policy Shift - The BOJ has been purchasing ETFs and REITs since 2010 as part of its monetary easing strategy, significantly increasing its holdings after the introduction of "quantitative and qualitative monetary easing" in 2013 [4][6]. - The previous BOJ leadership believed that large-scale purchases of ETFs would positively impact the economy and prices, viewing it as a tool to combat deflation [6][9]. Group 2: Challenges and Concerns - There are concerns that the BOJ's actions have distorted stock prices, which should be determined by corporate performance, and have weakened corporate governance by delegating voting rights to asset management companies [6][9]. - The BOJ's decision to sell off its ETF holdings is complicated by fears of market disruption, especially if a large volume is sold at once, which could lead to significant stock price declines [9][12]. Group 3: Future Strategy and Financial Implications - The BOJ has opted for a gradual and long-term selling strategy while retaining the option to adjust the pace of sales based on market conditions [9][12]. - The potential for losses due to market fluctuations exists, as the BOJ's accounting rules require provisions for any unrealized losses on ETFs, which could temporarily worsen its financial condition [12]. - As of September 19, the BOJ's ETF holdings amounted to approximately 85 trillion yen, representing about 8% of the total market capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange's Prime market [10].