券商中国·2025-09-22 03:55Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the bond market is expected to be supported by domestic monetary easing following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which may enhance the bond market's performance in the fourth quarter [1][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, from a target range of 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut in nine months [2]. - Domestic banks are likely to follow suit with interest rate cuts, with predictions of a 10 basis points reduction in policy rates and a potential 20 basis points cut in the LPR for loans over five years [3][5]. Group 2: Currency and Export Dynamics - The weakening of the US dollar, which fell from around 100 points in late July to approximately 97 points by September 18, has led to a passive appreciation of the RMB, enhancing the willingness of export enterprises to settle in RMB [2]. - The RMB exchange rate has appreciated significantly, breaking the 7.2 mark and reaching around 7.1, which may pose risks to export competitiveness and necessitate measures to stabilize the currency [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - With the expectation of further monetary easing, institutions are optimistic about the bond market in the fourth quarter, predicting that the yield on 10-year government bonds may return to around 1.65% [5]. - After three months of adjustment, the bond market shows signs of stabilization, with expectations for a new downward trend in interest rates as the fourth quarter approaches [6].