券商中国·2025-09-21 05:16Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation in response to the Federal Reserve's resumption of the interest rate cut cycle, aiming to enhance portfolio resilience in a changing environment [2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - HSBC forecasts that the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points in December this year and again in March next year, potentially lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75% by the end of next year [4]. - There is an increasing risk of multiple rate cuts if the labor market shows signs of weakening, which could lead to consecutive cuts in October and December [4]. - The resumption of the rate cut cycle is expected to lower cash rates and bond yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding cash assets [4]. Group 2: Fixed Income Strategy - HSBC emphasizes the importance of positioning in high-quality bonds to prepare for the new round of rate cuts, aiming to lock in current higher yields before further declines [4]. - The firm maintains a positive outlook on UK government bonds and investment-grade bonds in euros and pounds to hedge against downside risks, while holding a neutral view on US Treasuries [4]. - HSBC favors high-quality US investment-grade bonds and focuses on 7–10 year duration bonds due to a steeper yield curve [4]. Group 3: Equity Market Insights - HSBC maintains a diversified regional strategy in equities, favoring the US, Asian markets, and the UAE, with a positive outlook on Singapore stocks due to their defensive advantages and attractive dividends [6]. - The firm has downgraded its view on Indian stocks from positive to neutral due to short-term cyclical headwinds [6]. - The US market benefits from AI and economic growth, with favorable conditions for corporate earnings, leading to a positive outlook on US equities [6]. Group 4: Opportunities in Artificial Intelligence - HSBC expresses optimism about the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence, noting its rapid application and commercialization, which enhances productivity and creates new revenue streams [7]. - The demand for digital infrastructure is accelerating AI adoption, with a focus on strategic industries like finance showing growth potential [7]. - In the US, HSBC continues to favor the information technology and communication sectors, while in Asia, it focuses on non-essential consumer goods, finance, communication, and healthcare sectors [7].