世界核能发电创新高，铀供应缺口隐忧凸显

Core Viewpoint - The global nuclear power sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by the accelerated deployment of small modular reactor technology, but faces potential uranium supply shortages due to resource depletion in existing mines over the next decade [1][3][9]. Group 1: Nuclear Power Capacity Growth - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) projects that global nuclear power generation capacity could reach 561 GW in a low scenario and 992 GW in a high scenario by 2050, marking the fifth consecutive year of upward revisions to nuclear expansion forecasts [3]. - As of the end of last year, there were 440 operational nuclear reactors worldwide, with a total installed capacity of 398 GW, an increase of 6 GW from the previous year [5]. - The average capacity factor for nuclear power plants rose to 83%, continuing a trend of high operational performance since 2000, with over 60% of nuclear units maintaining capacity factors above 80% [5][6]. Group 2: Regional Developments - The growth in global nuclear power generation over the past decade has been primarily driven by developments in Asia, where five out of seven new reactors connected to the grid last year were located [7]. - The United States operates the most nuclear reactors globally, with 94 reactors and a total capacity of 97 GW, and aims to increase its nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050 [7]. Group 3: Uranium Demand and Supply Challenges - Uranium demand is expected to increase by one-third to 86,000 tons by 2030, and to 150,000 tons by 2040, while existing uranium production is projected to halve during the same period, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [10][11]. - The IAEA and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency indicate that while proven uranium resources can support nuclear power through 2050 and beyond, significant investment in exploration, mining, and processing technologies is necessary to meet rising demand [10]. - Current uranium spot prices are around $80 per pound, with projections suggesting prices could rise to $100 per pound by 2026 due to supply challenges and stable demand [11].