历史高点被“踩在脚下”，所有资产都在涨

Group 1 - The global financial market is experiencing a broad cross-asset surge, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the AI boom, marking the most significant rise since the speculative frenzy of 2021 [1] - In the U.S. market, major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached historical highs, with year-to-date gains of 14% and 17% respectively, while the Russell 2000 index has also surpassed its previous peak [2] - The MSCI All Country World Index has hit a record high, indicating a global trend, with emerging market stocks outperforming global indices, signaling a sharp increase in investor risk appetite [4] Group 2 - The credit market is witnessing a similar optimistic trend, with the credit spread for high-rated U.S. companies narrowing to below 0.8 percentage points, the lowest since 1998 [4] - The narrative around this market surge is built on the "Great Resilience Trade," emphasizing resilient consumers, the ongoing AI revolution, and easing trade tensions from the White House [8] - The enthusiasm for AI investments is seen as a core driver, with some firms warning that investors are making one-sided bets while overlooking high valuations and slowing revenue growth [9] Group 3 - The recent interest rate cuts are interpreted as the beginning of a new easing cycle, leading to significant capital inflows into global stock markets, the largest since 2025 [13] - Some investors are cautious, highlighting high geopolitical risks, a slowing U.S. labor market, and extreme market concentration, suggesting current valuations leave little room for error [14][16] - Despite the prevailing optimism, a minority of teams are adopting defensive strategies, with increased short positions in the Russell 2000 index ETF and a rise in funds flowing into safe-haven assets like gold and cash [16]