刚刚！外围，突传重磅消息！

Core Viewpoint - The extension of the cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) until October 15 is expected to significantly impact the global cobalt supply chain, potentially leading to a sharp increase in cobalt prices [1][2][5]. Summary by Sections Cobalt Export Ban - The DRC's strategic mineral regulatory agency announced the extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, with a planned lifting on October 16 and the implementation of annual export quotas [1][5]. - The export quotas allow mining companies to export a maximum of 18,125 tons of cobalt for the remainder of 2025, with annual limits of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027 [5]. Price Impact - The ban's extension is likely to create a supply gap, accelerating the consumption of existing inventories and leading to a significant short-term increase in cobalt prices [5]. - As of September 18, cobalt prices have surged to over 270,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 62.7% increase since the beginning of the year [2][7]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts maintain an optimistic view on cobalt prices for the year, with expectations that the DRC's export quotas will enhance its pricing power, potentially raising the price center [3][12]. - Projections indicate that cobalt prices could reach over 350,000 yuan per ton between 2026 and 2027 [10]. Demand Drivers - Cobalt is a critical component in lithium-ion batteries, particularly in electric vehicles and consumer electronics, with demand expected to rise due to advancements in technology such as 5G, AI, and IoT [9][11]. - Global cobalt consumption is projected to increase by 7.15% in 2024, with China's consumption expected to grow by 5.6% [9]. Market Performance - The DRC's export ban has led to a significant improvement in the global cobalt market's supply-demand dynamics, with prices rebounding sharply [7]. - Major players in the cobalt industry, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt, have seen substantial stock price increases, reflecting the positive market sentiment [12].