中欧班列中断，义乌圣诞商品提前运出“逃过一劫”

Core Viewpoint - The recent closure of the Polish border has disrupted the China-Europe Railway Express, forcing companies to seek alternative shipping methods, primarily sea freight, which significantly extends delivery times and may impact seasonal sales [3][5][8]. Group 1: Impact of Polish Border Closure - The temporary closure of the Malaszewicze port in Poland since September 12 has led to a significant disruption in the China-Europe Railway Express, which is a crucial logistics route for trade between China and Europe [5][8]. - Companies like Tianmeng Industrial have established emergency response teams to mitigate the impact of the closure, including real-time communication with railway departments and government agencies [5][8]. - Approximately 90% of the China-Europe Railway Express trains enter the EU through Poland, making Malaszewicze a critical gateway for goods, with around 300 trains currently stranded in Belarus, increasing supply chain costs [8][9]. Group 2: Shift to Sea Freight - Due to the disruption, some companies are shifting from rail to sea freight, which can take about 60 days compared to the 30-40 days for rail transport, potentially affecting the sales of seasonal products [9][10]. - The Christmas product shipments have been significantly advanced this year, with exports from Yiwu reaching 12.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, indicating a proactive approach to ensure timely delivery [12]. - The overall demand for container shipping from China remains weak, leading to a decline in shipping rates, with the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index dropping by 14.3% recently [14]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The China-Europe Railway Express has seen a steady increase in the number of trains and containers, with 19,000 trains and 2.07 million TEUs expected to be dispatched in 2024, reflecting a growth of 10% and 9% respectively [13]. - China remains the largest source of imports for the EU, accounting for 21.3% of total EU imports, with a significant portion of trade involving high-tech products [13]. - Despite the current disruptions, the overall inventory levels for the upcoming quarter are expected to be normal, with increased costs largely passed on to consumers in the U.S. [13].