EV用金属的价格低迷看不到出口

Core Viewpoint - The prices of mineral resources used for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, particularly lithium, are experiencing a downturn due to oversupply in the market, despite some government measures to curb production in China [1][4]. Group 1: Lithium Market Dynamics - As of September 15, the price of lithium carbonate, a key price indicator, is at 72,500 yuan per ton, down 37% from the peak in March 2024 [2]. - The lithium market has seen a previous downturn, with speculative investments driving prices to nearly 568,500 yuan per ton in November 2022, which is about eight times the current price [5]. - Analysts predict that unless there is significant production cutback, lithium oversupply is expected to persist until 2032 [5]. Group 2: Other EV Metals - Nickel, used in high-performance "ternary" batteries, is also in a low price range, with prices at $15,405 per ton, down 29% from the peak in May 2024 [8]. - Indonesia, which accounts for 60% of global nickel production, is projected to triple its output by 2024 compared to 2020 [8]. - Cobalt prices remain low, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo halting exports due to severe oversupply, which is a significant source of revenue for the country [8]. Group 3: Future Demand Projections - Long-term demand for EV metals is expected to grow, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that lithium demand could reach nine times the 2024 levels by 2050 under a net-zero emissions scenario [8]. - Nickel demand is projected to double by 2050, but current production is expanding at a rate that exceeds actual demand, indicating a need for time before a market reversal occurs [8].