A股慢牛，不靠宽松

Core Viewpoint - After September 22, the market is no longer trading on the "illusion of easing," but is instead "realizing" a logic of certainty in the market [2][20]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Signals - The press conference on September 22, featuring top financial management officials, did not announce any short-term policy adjustments, which led to a positive response in the A-share market [2][3]. - Despite the unchanged LPR (Loan Prime Rate), the market exhibited a sense of "easing," attributed to coordinated fiscal and monetary efforts, structural tools, and the global interest rate environment [7][20]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Financial Environment - Recent economic data shows a mixed picture: CPI decreased by 0.4%, PMI at 49.4%, and industrial value-added growth at 5.2%, indicating a cooling economy [6][13]. - The 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.60% to 1.87%, reflecting a shift in market expectations towards "structural policies" rather than broad monetary easing [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Market Dynamics - A-share market capitalization increased from 68 trillion to 104 trillion, with over 3,000 stocks rising more than 50%, indicating a significant market expansion [9][10]. - High-growth sectors like semiconductor equipment and new energy batteries are benefiting from favorable policies and market conditions, while stable dividend-paying assets are attracting long-term investments [10][11]. Group 4: Financial System Resilience - The financial system's scale and global standing have improved, with bank assets nearing 470 trillion and direct financing's share rising to 31.6% [13][14]. - Structural risks are being managed effectively, with a significant reduction in local government financing platforms and financial debt, indicating a controlled risk environment [14][17]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Certainty - The market is focusing on sustainable profitability, with loans in technology, green, and inclusive sectors growing at over 20% annually, providing visibility for related companies [20][22]. - The expectation of stable policies and regulatory frameworks is reducing concerns about extreme market volatility, suggesting a shift towards a more predictable investment landscape [23].