创新药龙头有望创2021年以来新高！东吴证券朱国广最新发声

Core Viewpoint - The current innovation drug market is driven by the "local innovation - global monetization" model, with expectations for the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index and leading innovative drug companies to reach new highs since 2021 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The innovation drug market has shifted from a focus on domestic sales to business development (BD) and international expansion, allowing Chinese companies to enter mature markets like Europe and the US [2][4]. - As of the end of 2024, China is projected to have 3,575 active innovative drugs in development, surpassing the US and becoming the second-largest source of quality innovative drug pipelines globally [2][3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The number of first-in-class (FIC) drugs developed by Chinese companies has significantly increased, with 716 drug candidates leading in their respective development tracks, indicating a narrowing gap with the US [3]. - The global innovative drug market is expected to grow from $1.1 trillion in 2024 to $1.5 trillion by 2030, with Chinese companies potentially capturing a 30% market share, equating to $450 billion [4]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has room to grow approximately 50% to reach its 2021 peak, with leading innovative drug companies expected to achieve similar heights [4][5]. - Short-term outlook remains positive for the innovative drug sector, with significant potential for growth driven by fundamental changes in leading companies and upcoming academic conferences expected to boost business development activities [6].