一年上涨40%，被“9·24新政”改变的股市

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently the preferred choice for "deposit migration," while the attractiveness of the real estate sector has significantly diminished, except for necessary demand and improvements [2][39]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Historical Context - The market was eagerly awaiting a significant policy announcement, similar to the "9·24 New Policy" from a year ago, which had previously ignited a strong rally in the A-share market [3][5]. - The "9·24 New Policy" led to a rapid increase in the A-share index, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 2748 points to 3489 points within six trading days, a gain of 26.95% [10][11]. - Over the year following the "9·24 New Policy," the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 38.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 300 both rose by 40.13% [13]. Group 2: A-share Market Dynamics - The total market capitalization of A-shares grew from 70.6 trillion to 103.2 trillion RMB, an increase of 46.2% [15]. - The trading volume remained robust, with daily trading exceeding 2 trillion RMB and reaching a peak of over 3 trillion RMB [14]. - The number of new accounts opened in the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 17.21 million in 2025, a 47.9% increase compared to the previous year [15]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market experienced a brief resurgence during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with a 23.4% week-on-week increase in daily transactions of second-hand homes [17]. - However, the recovery in the real estate market is slower compared to the A-share market, with only five cities showing year-on-year price increases in August [18][22]. - Real estate development investment from January to August 2024 was 60,309 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9% [21]. Group 4: Policy Impacts and Future Outlook - The "9·24 New Policy" provided significant short-term liquidity to the A-share market through measures such as a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.2% cut in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate [25][26]. - Long-term funding strategies were also implemented, aiming to channel substantial amounts of capital into the A-share market, with estimates suggesting that insurance companies could inject 526.6 billion RMB annually [27]. - In contrast, the real estate sector's policies focused on reducing burdens on existing loans, easing new purchase requirements, and providing support to struggling developers [28][31]. Group 5: Investor Sentiment and Market Behavior - The sentiment among investors has shifted significantly, with a growing preference for the A-share market as a destination for capital, driven by the expectation of higher returns compared to real estate [39]. - The differences in market liquidity and investor psychology between the A-share and real estate markets contribute to the contrasting recovery trajectories observed [24][36].