放量洗盘？节前如能调整，哪些机会需重点抓住？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the market's pre-holiday adjustment presents an opportunity for investors, with a higher probability of post-holiday gains due to supportive policies and strong fundamentals in the technology sector [2][3]. Group 1: Pre-Holiday Adjustment Analysis - Pre-holiday adjustments are driven by increased risk aversion as uncertainty rises during long holidays, leading to decreased market liquidity [6]. - As of September 22, the margin trading balance reached 2.417 trillion yuan, indicating that margin traders may close positions to reduce costs and avoid holiday uncertainties [7]. - Fund style shifts are observed as some funds move from high-volatility tech sectors to low-valuation blue-chip stocks, exacerbating market divergence [9]. - Historical data from 2007-2024 shows that the probability of positive returns in the 10 trading days before the holiday is only 39%, while the probability of gains in the 5 trading days after the holiday is as high as 78% [10][11]. Group 2: Differences in Current Market Conditions - The current market is characterized by a lack of fully developed FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) effects, with institutional and margin trading being the main market drivers, and the profitability of tech sectors like AI and semiconductors not yet widespread [13]. - Clear policy support is evident, with KPI indicators aimed at enhancing "scientific content," providing a long-term rationale for tech growth stocks, unlike previous liquidity-driven markets [14]. - The demand for AI computing power is surging, and domestic substitution is accelerating, leading to continuous improvement in the fundamentals of the tech sector [15]. Group 3: Potentially Affected and Mispriced Sectors - High-profit-taking sectors, such as AI computing chains and robotics, may face adjustment pressure due to concentrated gains [16]. - Consumer and financial sectors, heavily weighted by funds shifting back to low-volatility stocks, may experience downward pressure [17]. - AI computing infrastructure remains a potential mispriced direction, with significant room for growth despite high valuations [18]. - Domestic semiconductor advancements and the upcoming IPO of domestic unicorns in AI chip development indicate substantial growth potential [19]. Group 4: Market Upward Logic - Policy support is expected to continue, with the enhancement of "scientific content" as a long-term goal, potentially leading to more tech subsidies and tax incentives [20]. - Upcoming industry catalysts, such as the OpenAI developer conference and Huawei's HiSilicon conference, are anticipated to release new momentum [21]. - The current valuation of the total A-share market is at a TTM P/E of 22.10, which is in the 89th percentile over the past decade, while tech sector PEG ratios are generally below 1, indicating attractive value [22]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Recommendations - In the short term, it is advised to control positions and look for buying opportunities after corrections, focusing on AI computing and domestic semiconductors [24]. - For the medium to long term, maintaining positions in leading tech stocks is recommended, ignoring short-term fluctuations while awaiting post-holiday policy and industry catalysts [25]. Group 6: Macro Trends and AI Technology Competition - The macro landscape has shifted with a reduction in tariff tensions between the US and China, signaling a potential for cooperation despite ongoing tech competition [27]. - The competition in technology continues to escalate, particularly in semiconductors, but there remains room for technical exchanges in AI and quantum computing [28]. - The essence of competition and cooperation suggests that while short-term frictions are inevitable, long-term collaboration within the global supply chain will become the norm [29]. Group 7: Key Events and Investment Opportunities in October - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to release liquidity that benefits tech stocks, while the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session may emphasize increased investment in technology sectors [49]. - Significant events in October, such as the OpenAI developer conference and the World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference, are likely to catalyze market movements and benefit AI chip companies [50]. - Investment strategies should focus on sectors poised to benefit from policy support and industry breakthroughs, particularly in AI computing, domestic semiconductors, and robotics [51].