专家建议四季度增发1万亿元地方化债额度

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a 10 trillion yuan local government bond replacement plan to mitigate hidden debt risks, with over 5 trillion yuan already replaced as of now [3][4]. Group 1: Debt Replacement Strategy - The central government has introduced a plan to replace hidden debts with local government bonds, aiming to extend repayment periods and reduce interest rates [3]. - As per the Ministry of Finance's debt replacement plan, the 10 trillion yuan replacement quota is distributed from 2024 to 2028, with 2.8 trillion yuan allocated for each of the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, and 800 billion yuan for 2027 and 2028 [3][4]. - By the end of 2024, the total government debt in China is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan, with local government debt (including hidden debt) amounting to 58 trillion yuan, indicating a higher proportion of local debt compared to central debt [6]. Group 2: Recommendations for Debt Management - Experts suggest that the current debt replacement resources do not align with local government needs, advocating for a more flexible allocation of debt resources based on actual requirements [4][5]. - There is a call for increasing the debt limit for local governments to facilitate the replacement of unresolved hidden debts, utilizing various types of bonds for this purpose [7]. - The former head of the Fiscal Science Research Institute recommends that the central government should take on more debt to alleviate local government debt pressure and enhance debt sustainability [6][7]. Group 3: Current Debt Risk Assessment - The overall debt risk in China is considered manageable, with a government debt ratio of 68.7% as of the end of 2024, significantly lower than the G20 average of 118.2% [8].