纳斯达克首席经济学家：美利率或降至3.5%

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut reflects ongoing challenges in the labor market and inflation, with a cautious monetary policy stance expected to continue [1][4][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year [1][4] - Future rate cuts are anticipated, potentially lowering rates to around 3.5%, indicating a response to economic data and external pressures [2][5] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Despite signs of economic cooling, there are no large-scale layoffs, and consumer spending remains stable, suggesting the U.S. economy may continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years [6] - The current economic environment is characterized as "neither hot nor cold," with inflation close to neutral levels and a manageable unemployment rate [5][6] Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - Recent stock market gains are primarily driven by corporate earnings growth, particularly from investments in artificial intelligence, which have lowered financing costs and boosted valuations [2][8] - The market's upward trend is supported by declining interest rates and increasing corporate profits, leading to optimistic projections for the S&P 500 index [12] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Sentiment - Consumer confidence is weakening, with many retail investors becoming more cautious, yet institutional investors remain focused on fundamental factors, leading to a divergence in market sentiment [11][12] - The ongoing investment in AI-related sectors is seen as a key driver for future profitability, although the sustainability of these investments will be crucial for maintaining market valuations [9][13]