冲刺年销目标、消化乘用车库存，车企如何破局？

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry in China is facing challenges in inventory reduction and sales growth, with a focus on the "golden September and silver October" period to meet annual sales targets. The production capacity utilization rate for passenger cars is around 52% in the first half of 2025, with both production and sales exceeding 15 million units, driven by policies like trade-in programs and growth in export business [3][5]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Trends - In the 18 months from January 2024 to July 2025, the average price of passenger cars has decreased by 5,000 to 9,000 yuan, representing a discount range of 2.8% to 5.6% [3]. - The number of new models, particularly plug-in hybrid and extended-range vehicles, has nearly doubled compared to last year, although the marginal effect on sales growth is diminishing [3][4]. Sales Performance of Different Vehicle Types - As of August this year, plug-in hybrid vehicle sales were 314,000 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, while extended-range vehicle sales growth was only about 0.3% [5]. - In contrast, pure electric vehicle sales reached 686,000 units in August, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.2%, significantly outpacing plug-in and extended-range vehicles [5]. Inventory and Market Strategy - The cumulative inventory of plug-in hybrid vehicles has reached one million units, suggesting a need for a 33-month period to clear this inventory at a rate of 30,000 units per month [5]. - To address inventory issues, companies are considering expanding into overseas markets, with a focus on increasing production capacity in target markets amid global trade protectionism [5][6]. Export Dynamics - Exports have become a major driver of automotive production growth since 2023, although the growth rate of complete vehicle exports is expected to slow down due to local production requirements in target markets [6]. - The export performance of Chinese new energy vehicles has exceeded expectations, with significant growth in markets such as the Middle East and developed countries, particularly in Western Europe and Asia [6]. Future Outlook - Despite a projected 12% year-on-year increase in light vehicle production in the first half of 2025, the second half may face challenges such as slowing consumption and inventory reduction [6]. - Overall, the automotive industry is expected to maintain a stable and positive development trend, with improvements in industrial scale and quality efficiency driven by policies like trade-in programs [6].