【周度分析】车市扫描(2025年9月15日-9月21日)

Group 1: Market Overview - From September 1 to 21, 2025, the national passenger car retail market reached 1.191 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1% and an 8% increase compared to the previous month. Cumulative retail for the year is 15.955 million units, up 9% year-on-year [2][5] - During the same period, wholesale of passenger cars reached 1.307 million units, showing no year-on-year growth but a 16% increase from the previous month. Year-to-date wholesale totals 19.349 million units, up 12% year-on-year [2][9] Group 2: New Energy Vehicles - Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles from September 1 to 21 reached 697,000 units, a 10% year-on-year increase and an 11% increase from the previous month. The penetration rate for new energy vehicles is 58.5%, with cumulative retail for the year at 8.267 million units, up 24% year-on-year [2][5] - Wholesale of new energy vehicles during the same period was 724,000 units, also a 10% year-on-year increase and a 19% increase from the previous month. Year-to-date wholesale totals 9.668 million units, up 31% year-on-year [2][5] Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - The market is experiencing a stable start in September 2025, with performance similar to 2023 but weaker than September 2024. The "trade-in" policy initiated in late July 2024 has positively impacted sales, but some regions are cautious about the sustainability of subsidies [5][6] - The introduction of new models at the Chengdu Auto Show has generated significant interest, but the overall contribution of new models is below expectations due to a lack of entry-level popular models [6] Group 4: Wholesale Trends - Daily average wholesale for passenger cars in the first three weeks of September showed a mixed performance, with a decline in the first week but growth in the subsequent weeks. The cumulative wholesale for the first 21 days is 1.307 million units, reflecting a 0% year-on-year change [9][10] - Major manufacturers are focusing on maintaining price stability and reducing dealer inventory pressure, indicating cautious optimism in domestic sales growth [9] Group 5: Commercial Vehicles - The domestic commercial vehicle market saw a 14% year-on-year increase in insurance data, with August sales reaching 246,000 units. Year-to-date sales for commercial vehicles are 2.01 million units, up 8% year-on-year [10][11] - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has significantly increased, reaching 25% in the first eight months of 2025, indicating strong growth in this segment [11] Group 6: Future Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" anticipates a total automotive sales volume of 40 million units, with an average annual growth rate of 3%. The growth is expected to be driven by increased domestic demand and exports [12][13] - The potential for growth in the automotive market is attributed to the expansion into lower-tier cities, the impact of electrification on vehicle ownership cycles, and the increasing share of Chinese brands in international markets [13] Group 7: International Market Analysis - The Russian automotive market saw a significant increase in sales in 2024, with a total of 1.83 million units sold, but a decline in 2025. Chinese brands have captured over 60% of the market share in Russia, indicating strong performance [14][15] - Chinese automakers are adopting various strategies to enhance their presence in the Russian market, including local production and supply chain restructuring to mitigate risks associated with tariffs and delivery times [16]