多位华尔街交易员揭秘：“欧美资本是本轮金价新高的最大多头”

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that European and American capital have become the primary drivers behind the recent surge in gold prices, with a notable increase in gold purchases by these investors aligning with global central bank trends [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - As of September 23, COMEX gold futures reached a historical high of $3,824.6 per ounce [2]. - Since August 20, gold price growth rates during different trading sessions were 1.3% in Asia, 1.8% in Europe, and 7.7% in the U.S., indicating that the majority of the price increase was driven by U.S. and European trading [3]. - From August to mid-September, U.S. and European investors increased their gold ETF holdings by 37.1 tons and 20.8 tons, respectively, while Asian investors reduced their holdings by 4.8 tons [3]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Major U.S. investment firms are speculating that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts could lead to a significant rise in gold prices, with predictions suggesting gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [6]. - Investment strategies have shifted, with a notable increase in net purchases of COMEX gold options, particularly those with strike prices between $3,900 and $4,000 [7]. - Wealthy family offices in the U.S. are increasing their gold allocations from 15% to 20%-25%, further driving demand for gold investments [7]. Group 3: Divergence in Capital Behavior - In contrast to the bullish sentiment from Western investors, Asian capital appears to be retreating, with the total long-short ratio of Shanghai gold futures dropping from a yearly high of 3.58 to 2.67 [10]. - Factors contributing to this trend include strong performance in the A-share market and a 1% appreciation of the RMB against the USD since June, which has reduced domestic demand for gold [11]. - Domestic gold industry players are increasing hedging operations, leading to a rise in short positions in the futures market, which has dampened the bullish momentum [12]. Group 4: Market Monitoring - U.S. investment institutions are closely monitoring Asian capital's activity in the gold market, particularly looking at monthly net purchases of gold ETFs and sales data for gold jewelry [12]. - If Asian capital re-enters the gold market, it could provide further support for U.S. investors to push gold prices higher towards the $4,000 mark [12]. Group 5: Speculative Activity - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, there was a divergence in capital behavior, with hedge funds reducing their net long positions while speculative capital increased its long positions significantly [13].