钨价狂飙，产业链上演“三国杀”

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, tungsten prices have surged dramatically, with upstream companies gaining significant control over the market dynamics, while midstream companies face increasing cost pressures [1][4][19]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Tungsten prices have increased by over 50% from the low points at the beginning of the year, with some products seeing nearly 100% annual price increases [5][12]. - As of September 24, European APT prices have risen to between $580 and $645 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 30% [6]. - The supply-demand imbalance is evident, with upstream companies adopting a "reluctant selling" strategy, controlling the supply to maintain high prices [3][4][14]. Group 2: Upstream and Midstream Challenges - Upstream companies are experiencing a "golden era" due to fundamental shifts in supply and demand, with a reported 60% year-on-year increase in procurement costs for midstream companies [8][24]. - A significant reduction in tungsten concentrate mining quotas has exacerbated the supply shortage, with the first batch of quotas for 2025 set at 58,000 tons, a decrease of 6.45% year-on-year [8][15]. - Midstream companies are struggling with profit margins, as the cost of tungsten concentrate has risen significantly while the selling price of APT has not kept pace [24][25]. Group 3: International Trade and Policy Implications - China's tungsten exports have decreased by 34.56% in the first seven months of 2025, while imports surged by 45.57%, indicating a shift in the global tungsten trade landscape [15][26]. - Regulatory discussions are underway regarding "flexible mining quotas" to balance supply and environmental concerns, although there are fears this may reduce resource tax revenues [9][38]. Group 4: Technological Innovations and Future Outlook - The introduction of efficient tungsten waste recycling technologies could potentially reduce the demand for primary tungsten by up to 30% if scaled effectively [41][42]. - The market is approaching a critical point, with potential price corrections anticipated as downstream companies struggle with rising costs and reduced orders from clients [36][39].