邢自强：全面社保改革有望激活10万亿美元内需市场，是人民币国际化基石

Core Viewpoint - The forum "Phoenix Bay Area Financial Forum 2025" emphasizes the theme of "New Pattern · New Path" and aims to explore development opportunities amidst changing circumstances [1] Group 1: Economic Insights - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, highlighted that social security reform can promote a unified national market and boost consumption, which is essential to break the current low-price cycle and enhance corporate profitability [2] - Xing proposed that a more robust social security network would alleviate concerns for vulnerable groups, thereby reducing the overall precautionary savings rate and unleashing consumption potential [2] - He estimated that comprehensive social security reform could increase the consumption share of GDP from less than 40% to around 45% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, creating an internal consumption market worth approximately $10 trillion [2] Group 2: Funding Strategies - Xing identified two key pathways to secure funding for social security improvements: increasing the dividend payout ratio of state-owned enterprises and adjusting the fiscal expenditure structure to focus more on human investment rather than infrastructure [2] - He emphasized that the government has the capacity to undertake these investments, labeling them as the most cost-effective economic investments [2] Group 3: Currency Internationalization - The core of RMB internationalization lies in the combination of "Dao" (principle) and "Shu" (method), suggesting that substantial structural reforms are necessary to break the low-price cycle and enhance the returns on RMB assets [2] - Achieving this would create a solid foundation for the application of financial infrastructures like stablecoins, aiming for a long-term goal of efficiency through effective strategies [2]