券商中国·2025-09-25 15:20Core Viewpoint - The US stock market, particularly semiconductor stocks, experienced a significant sell-off, driven by concerns over high valuations and the increasing risk of a government shutdown [2][3][4]. Group 1: Semiconductor Stocks Performance - Semiconductor stocks collectively dropped, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling over 2%, and major companies like Broadcom, TSMC ADR, and Micron Technology also declining more than 2% [2][3]. - Other large tech stocks also faced declines, with Oracle dropping over 6% and Tesla down over 3% [3]. Group 2: Economic and Political Risks - The risk of a US government shutdown is rising, with a 63% probability of a shutdown by October 1, and a 76% chance of a shutdown by 2025, as political negotiations stall [4]. - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned about high valuations in the stock market, contributing to a cautious sentiment among investors [3][6]. Group 3: Economic Data and Inflation Concerns - Recent macroeconomic data showed a stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth of 3.8%, with personal consumption expenditures contributing significantly to this growth [5]. - The core PCE price index for Q2 was revised up to 2.6%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that may limit the Fed's ability to lower interest rates [5][6]. Group 4: Labor Market Insights - Initial jobless claims decreased to 218,000, the lowest since July, suggesting a healthy labor market despite signs of cooling [7].