独家专访盛松成：中国居民储蓄将更多流向金融投资

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing transformation of asset values in China, driven by innovation and changes in the capital market, leading to a shift in resident wealth towards financial investments, particularly in high-quality projects that generate stable cash flows [1][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 25, 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 14.96% year-to-date, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.11%, the ChiNext Index by 51.09%, the Hang Seng Index by 32.03%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 42.77% [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The external environment for Chinese asset prices is improving, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, providing room for potential rate cuts in China, although significant cuts are not anticipated in the short term [3][11]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a balanced approach to monetary policy, focusing on domestic conditions while considering external factors [4][11]. Group 3: Currency and Trade Dynamics - The long-term outlook for the RMB is stable with a tendency to appreciate, which supports internationalization efforts and helps Chinese enterprises expand globally [4][6][24]. - China is unlikely to repeat Japan's past mistakes regarding currency valuation, maintaining a stable exchange rate to prevent asset bubbles and industry hollowing [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - There is a growing trend of resident savings shifting towards financial investments, with new "wealth pools" emerging in sectors aligned with national strategic directions, such as new infrastructure and consumption infrastructure [12][13]. - The development of REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) in new infrastructure is encouraged to attract private capital, with a focus on simplifying approval processes for quality assets [13]. Group 5: Asset Management Industry Trends - The global asset management landscape is evolving, with significant growth in asset management scale driven by low interest rates and changing investment preferences [19][20]. - The asset management industry is expected to undergo three major changes: expansion of asset management scale due to excess liquidity, adjustments in asset allocation towards equities and alternative assets, and a shift in operational models towards service-oriented approaches [19][20]. Group 6: Gold and Investment Strategy - The rise of gold as a strategic asset is noted, driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. debt, although large-scale institutional allocation to gold may be limited [22][23]. - The long-term trend indicates that gold will play a significant role in investment portfolios, particularly as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases with lower interest rates [22][23]. Group 7: Future of RMB Internationalization - The RMB is increasingly recognized as a major currency in international trade and finance, with its international status expected to continue improving as China's economic strength grows [26][27]. - The potential for RMB appreciation is supported by low inflation rates in China compared to the U.S., enhancing its attractiveness as an investment currency [27].