4元1杯的雪王柠檬水供应紧张，其他茶饮凭啥躲过一劫？

Core Viewpoint - The recent shortage of lemon water at Mixue Ice City highlights significant industry risks, primarily due to rising lemon prices and supply chain vulnerabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Pricing Issues - Multiple Mixue Ice City stores have reported a lack of lemon water, with staff indicating that the product is out of stock and expected to remain unavailable for several days [1]. - The average wholesale price of lemons in China has nearly doubled compared to the same period last year, reaching 15 RMB per kilogram as of September 17, 2025 [1]. - Mixue Ice City has a strong supply chain presence, controlling over 50% of high-quality fresh fruit resources in key lemon-producing areas, but this concentration poses risks when facing climate disasters or global supply chain disruptions [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitor Strategies - The lemon crisis is exacerbated by climate issues affecting major production areas, with droughts in Sichuan and other regions leading to a projected 50%-60% reduction in yields [4]. - Other tea brands have avoided similar crises by diversifying their sourcing strategies, such as using different lemon varieties or establishing global procurement models [7][8]. - Mixue Ice City's low-price strategy has pressured its supply chain, making it difficult to pass on rising costs to consumers, which has contributed to the current supply issues [5][8]. Group 3: Financial Implications and Market Position - Mixue Ice City's lemon water is a significant revenue driver, with annual sales exceeding 1 billion cups, translating to approximately 4 billion RMB in sales, accounting for 13% of the company's total revenue in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - The company's reliance on a single source for over 70% of its lemon supply has created vulnerabilities that are not present in more diversified competitors [5][6]. - The current crisis reflects a broader tension between capital concentration and diverse consumer demands, indicating a need for more resilient supply chain strategies in the tea beverage industry [8].