21世纪经济报道·2025-09-26 11:11Core Viewpoint - The swine market is experiencing a downturn despite the traditional peak season, with prices dropping significantly and concerns over overcapacity in the industry [1][7]. Price Trends - As of September 26, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China is 12.71 yuan/kg, with a notable decline in prices across various regions [1]. - The average price of pigs in the third week of September was reported at 13.85 yuan/kg, while pork averaged 24.51 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.8% [1]. Market Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the high inventory levels and pressure on enterprises to sell are contributing to the lack of a market bottom, despite government measures to regulate production capacity [3][5]. - The current swine industry is in its sixth cycle, with expectations that the effects of capacity reduction will become evident by the second half of 2026, potentially leading to price increases [5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The overall high inventory levels, coupled with insufficient consumer demand, have resulted in a "peak season not peaking" scenario for pig prices [7]. - By November 2024, the number of breeding sows is expected to reach a peak of 40.8 million, indicating a continued supply pressure [7]. Corporate Actions - Major companies are actively reducing their breeding sow numbers and controlling production to address overcapacity issues [16][17]. - For instance, companies like Wens Foodstuffs and New Hope are maintaining stable inventory levels and controlling the weight of pigs at the time of sale [17]. Market Sentiment - There is a shift in market sentiment, with some farmers exhibiting panic selling behavior, leading to a negative feedback loop where lower prices prompt quicker sales, further driving prices down [8]. - Despite the challenges, there is a consensus in the industry regarding the need for proactive capacity reduction and quality improvement [8]. Structural Changes - The industry is expected to evolve into a "three-three" structure, with 30% of leading enterprises ensuring basic capacity, 30% focusing on niche markets, and 40% consisting of medium-sized family farms leveraging flexibility [18].