经济观察报·2025-09-26 09:59Core Viewpoint - The storage market appears to be recovering after years of adjustment, raising questions about whether the recent stock price increases of related A-share companies are due to cyclical trends or genuine improvements in their profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since September 4 to September 25, the stock prices of Demingli (001309.SZ) and Jiangbolong (301308.SZ) surged from approximately 86 CNY per share to about 177 CNY and 144 CNY respectively, reaching historical highs [2]. - International storage giant SanDisk announced a price increase of over 10% for some products, igniting industry-wide price hike expectations [2]. - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that NAND Flash prices may continue to rise into Q4 2025 and persist into 2026, indicating a potential market recovery [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance of Major Players - Micron's Q4 2025 revenue reached $11.32 billion, a 46% year-on-year increase, with net profit soaring 158% to $3.47 billion [4]. - For the entire 2025 fiscal year, Micron's revenue hit a record $37.4 billion, up nearly 50% [4]. - Micron's revenue from high-value segments like HBM and server DRAM reached $10 billion, five times that of the previous fiscal year, driven by demand from AI servers [5][6]. Group 3: Domestic Manufacturers' Challenges - Domestic storage manufacturers like Baiwei Storage and Demingli reported negative net profits in the first half of 2025, reflecting the lingering effects of the previous downturn [9]. - The traditional business model of these companies, which relies on purchasing storage wafers from international suppliers, limits profit margins and exposes them to inventory losses during price declines [9][10]. - Domestic firms are shifting focus to develop their own controller chips to capture higher value in the supply chain [10]. Group 4: Technological Advancements and Market Strategy - Jiangbolong has shipped over 80 million self-developed controller chips, while Baiwei Storage has successfully mass-produced its first domestic eMMC controller chip [10]. - Domestic manufacturers are investing in advanced packaging technologies to enhance production capabilities and profitability [12]. - The shift towards enterprise markets, such as data centers and AI servers, is expected to yield higher profit margins compared to traditional consumer markets [13][14]. Group 5: Investment and Future Outlook - Baiwei Storage raised 1.871 billion CNY for expanding its advanced packaging and manufacturing facilities, indicating a strategic shift towards higher-value manufacturing [12]. - Jiangbolong's enterprise storage business revenue reached 693 million CNY in the first half of 2025, a 138.66% increase, reflecting successful penetration into the enterprise market [14]. - The strong performance of storage concept stocks in the A-share market may reflect capital market's dynamic pricing of these companies' new growth narratives [14].