鲍威尔为何给美股牛市预期泼冷水

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on the U.S. equity market, highlighting that abundant liquidity is becoming a decisive factor in market pricing, with expectations of a bull market in U.S. stocks [1][2] - Following comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding high stock indices, major U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping an average of 79 basis points over three trading days [1] - The article suggests that Powell's remarks may be aimed at guiding market expectations regarding future rate cuts, as a stronger expectation of rate cuts could lead to a decline in the dollar index and reduced capital inflow into the U.S. [2][4] Group 2 - The article notes that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 123%, significantly above the IMF's warning threshold of 90%, which may explain the ongoing decline in the dollar index and increased sensitivity of overseas bond markets to U.S. economic data [3][4] - It emphasizes the challenge for the Federal Reserve to balance economic growth and inflation control, particularly in light of the government's tariff policies, which complicate the task of maintaining a stable economic environment [4] - The article concludes that a decrease in the federal funds rate is likely, but the Fed faces the challenge of preventing the market from forming a one-sided consensus on future rate expectations [4]