

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing intense fluctuations, contrasting with the anticipated bull market in 2024, leading to increased investment difficulties for banks in 2023 [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market is currently in a wide-ranging oscillation phase, with the ten-year government bond yield fluctuating within a range close to 40 basis points [1]. - After the implementation of the new tax regulations on government bond interest, the trading volume of existing bonds has seen a decline [3]. - In August, the total trading volume of bonds by major banks decreased to approximately 14.8 trillion yuan, down from 16.49 trillion yuan in July [4]. Group 2: Bank Performance and Strategies - In the first half of 2023, over 80% of A-share listed banks reported positive growth in investment income, with an average increase exceeding 45% [2][8]. - The investment income of listed banks in the first quarter and the first half of 2023 grew by 26.1% and 23.6% year-on-year, respectively [7]. - Major banks, including Construction Bank and Postal Savings Bank, saw significant increases in their investment income, with Construction Bank achieving a 200% year-on-year growth [10]. Group 3: Challenges and Adjustments - The investment difficulties have led to a negative growth in non-interest income for many banks, attributed to the divergence in market interest rates [6]. - The limited floating profit space and the need for strategic adjustments in bond trading have become apparent, with banks shifting focus to more flexible and diversified asset-liability strategies [13][14]. - The second quarter showed signs of reduced "debt selling" efforts, indicating a tightening of floating profit inventory among banks [11].